Second Quarter Start

If you’re a Bull, then I’m sure you’ve been delighted with the performance of the stock market this past week, and the beginning of the second quarter.

I won’t repost results that you can find elsewhere, but suffice it to say, the market really made a comeback in spite of worsening economic data. Here’s a list of some good places to follow weekly market results:

There’s an old adage that says the market usually turns around before the economy. A lot of folks are now saying that all the bad news has already been factored in, and that the market has bottomed-out. Well, I’m a little skeptical. I still think that the market’s in for more bad news and lower price levels. Corporate profits are going to be hit hard soon, and profits are what drives stock prices. Let’s see if the PPT can manipulate that. ;-)

But, don’t just take my word for it. Listen in to what Standard & Poor’s Equity Research has forecast for the remainder of the year and decide for yourself:

Earnings Outlook: Rebound or Repeat? (mp3 audio)

So, I’m still waiting on the sidelines, 100% of my retirement holdings invested in cash. Only time will tell if I’ll be left behind, or if my continued patience eventually pays off.

Eliot Spitzer’s Legacy

C'mon, cut me some slackI was reading “When Karma Calls” over at PIonline and the found the attitude that some on Wall Street still have towards Eliot Spitzer a little hard to digest.

Instead of holding themselves responsible for their own misdeeds, many on Wall Street still blame Eliot Spitzer for their own, or their associates, demise. What does that tell you about the folks you trust to manage your investments? It’s just that kind of attitude that makes me so cynical about the investment world. So, I thought it appropriate to write a post defending Eliot Spitzer’s legacy.

The way I see it, Eliot Spitzer’s made mistakes, but he’s not a bad man:

  1. He didn’t steal money out of my pocket like the some of corporations and criminals he prosecuted when he was Attorney General of New York.
  2. As far as I know, he also didn’t embezzle any money from his constituency like many other politicians in his position.
  3. And although he might have attempted some unsafe sex practices, I’d be willing to bet that his “dates” weren’t the victims of any price-fixing schemes on his part.

Now, nobody likes a hypocrite, especially one who seems holier-then-thou. But, ask yourself this: Did his dalliances with prostitutes have any affect on you personally?

No, the only people that he really hurt were himself and his family. Nothing that he did wrong was at the expense of the average American, or done so in order to fraudulently lines his own pockets. Unfortunately, like many other powerful men, he just couldn’t manage to keep his pants zipped.

Of course there’s no arguing that what Eliot Spitzer did was wrong, but I’m not one to forget his good deeds, no matter how his motives might be perceived by others.

Let us not forget the great changes he helped institute on behalf of the American consumer and individual investor like myself. I believe that his many positive accomplishments far outweigh the few mistakes he’s made.

Instead of criticizing him, I believe we owe a debt of gratitude to Mr. Spitzer.

Here are just of few of his accomplishments:

  • The five largest music companies and three of the USA’s largest music retailers agreed to pay $67.4 million and distribute $75.7 million in CDs to public and non-profit groups to settle a lawsuit led by New York and Florida over alleged price-fixing in the late 1990s.
  • As part of a Global Settlement decision in 2002, several regulations designed to prevent abuse stemming from pressure by investment bankers on analysts to provide “favorable” appraisals were instantiated. The investment firms involved in the settlement had all engaged in actions and practices that had allowed the inappropriate influence of their research analysts by their investment bankers seeking lucrative fees.
  • My favorite: In the 2003 Mutual Fund Scandal, Spitzer discovered illegal trading practices on the part of certain hedge fund and mutual fund companies. Spitzer and later the SEC also charged that major mutual fund groups facilitated market timing trading for favored clients. Nearly all of the fund firms charged by Spitzer with allowing market timing or late trading had settled with his office and the SEC between mid-2004 and mid-2005.

So, remember to keep these good deeds in mind whenever you feel a little vindictive or read that Eliot Spitzer is “getting what he deserves”. He did a lot of good things on our behalf during his career.

Financial Regulation Overhaul

Am I the only financial blogger out there who thinks that President Bush’s financial regulation overhaul plan is insane?

Keep in mind that, only about six months or so ago, the President and his yes-men were saying that the economy was in excellent shape and that we shouldn’t be concerned. Now, in just six months time, they’re saying that they need to overhaul the whole financial system in order to oversee financial market stability. That’s quite a dramatic swing, wouldn’t you say?

It’s too late now, but IMO, the best thing the government could have done during this crisis would have been to take a laissez faire approach and let the markets work out things for themselves. Now they’re looking to cause more problems, and cost taxpayers more money, instead of just letting the pieces fall where they may. This whole mess has got me thinking that maybe even Nouriel Roubini may not be so overly-bearish is his economic outlook.

Being the skeptic that I am, I’m leaning towards the idea that Monday’s announcement of the financial overhaul plan is just a wag-the-dog political ploy created to appease the scared and irate masses, and to help keep Republicans in office this election year. But, I could be wrong.. this may only be an insane idea.

My prediction? This plan never materializes.

Economic Anxiety

Hmm.. maybe my views in the Consumer Auto Reports post could be incorrect. Could it actually be fear that will keep people from spending?

According to a Gallup Poll released today:

The percentage of Americans saying they worry “a great deal” about the economy has surged by more than 20 points over the past year, moving the issue from 6th on the list of 12 national issues measured in 2007 to tied for first today with healthcare.

Economic Anxiety Gallup Poll

The only other issue for which Americans’ level of concern increased a significant amount since 2007 is unemployment, a major economic sub-issue.

When combined with this week’s Consumer Confidence Index, the data shows Americans are more worried than they’ve been in many years.

Consumer Auto Reports

Consumer spending is slowing and the auto manufacturers are being hit hard this year. When money gets tight, the big ticket items are the first to get cut from the budget, and a new car is “the” big ticket item. Auto analysts are reporting that the U.S. vehicle market could sink to its lowest level in at least a decade in 2008.

Take a look at the reports yourself:

It’s interesting how some in the media are attributing decreased auto sales to low consumer confidence and consumers’ fears about the economy. There are also news reports that many consumers are intentionally postponing auto purchases in anticipation that prices will fall or incentives improve soon.

I tend to disagree. I’d be willing to bet that consumer choices aren’t a major reason for decreasing auto sales. IMO, are large cause of lost sales is NOT intentional and most-likely caused by consumers’ being overextended, increased living expenses (food, gas, etc.), job losses, and tighter lending standards. Many consumers just don’t have the money to buy a new car or can’t qualify for a loan. The choice isn’t their’s to make.

Recession RepossessionSource: Non Sequitur, by Wiley Miller

My opinion is guided by a January Fitch Ratings report, In the Auto ABS Driver’s Seat that auto loans at least two months delinquent hit a 10-year high in January, signaling the continued spread of consumer weakness to beyond homes and credit cards.

According to that January report, Fitch doesn’t expect to see much relief in sight for auto ABS performance in both the prime and subprime sectors in the coming months. They forecast that current conditions in the economy along with a softer wholesale market will further pressure performance, despite this time of the year usually being a seasonally stronger period.

I tend to agree with this view. In April, all of my referenced reports will be updated for the first quarter of 2008, and I’m curious to see if the numbers are as bad as I expect. I’ll post those reports in the comments section to follow-up.

Due Diligence Example

Here’s an example of why it’s important to conduct your own due diligence and make your own investments decisions:

BEFORE:

AFTER:

It’s your money, manage it wisely.