April is almost over and things haven’t panned out as I thought they would.
It wouldn’t be right if I didn’t own up to being wrong about my last couple of forecasts. Plus, how could I bash the experts if I hypocritically excluded my own faults? So, let me highlight my mistakes:
1. About a month ago I predicted the market would quickly take a turn for the worse. The market did just the opposite, and is now close to making up it’s first quarter losses.
2. The past few weeks I predicted corporate profits would tumble. While earnings were mixed and lower than last year’s results, earnings came through much better than I expected.
3. At the beginning of last year I celebrated being “back in black“, but now I’m back in the red after this past month’s comeback.
Three bad calls.
Now call me crazy, but I still don’t think my forecast is wrong on the economy and where the stock market’s headed. I believe it’s only my “timing” that’s incorrect. I’m still of the opinion that the stock market’s headed south, and I’m still 100% in cash.
I’ve been invested in cash for a while now. Time will tell if I’m correct.. or just plain crazy. So, stick around to find out. Until then, I think the following music video best describes my feelings about this past month.
Comments 4
“…my timing that’s incorrect.” C’mon Mike! Rarely is timing exactly right. Maybe 60-70% cash would be better? The big drop will come, but it happens infrequently because so many are pushing markets up (including the stocks I own that produce the food you had for breakfast;)
Posted 30 Apr 2008 at 7:54 am ¶I think your right about the market continuing to slip down due to two things, and they aren’t any mystery at all. High oil prices and the stumbling housing market will continue. There will still be profitable stocks like groceries and repair companies, but the influx of new stuff being purchased will continue to fall as long as gas keeps going up. Gas is just tied to everything.
Posted 30 Apr 2008 at 10:25 am ¶Hmmm.. I didn’t think anyone was actually reading all my drivel. I value your differing opinions.
MJ.. IMO, the only reason the stock market hasn’t really tanked yet is because, so far, government intervention has successfully postponed the crisis.
I also agree that continued high oil prices will takes it’s toll, and I can’t see any reason why housing should turn around anytime soon.
trip.. being unconventional is one of my many faults.
By the way, there’s big money in those Pop Tarts.
Posted 30 Apr 2008 at 2:40 pm ¶Mike, I think in the market is changing or shifting or some other term like that. Things will either change, like new high mileage cars or more motorcycles and greater energy efficiency, or get a lot worse and then change.
I used to think America was stupid (see “President”), but what I really think is that America is slow. I think we will all come around, some just may do it a little quicker than others. 5-10 years from now a Prius will be considered a POS gas gussler, okay maybe not, but the market will demand something different. Make no mistake though, there is always money to be made.
Posted 30 Apr 2008 at 7:31 pm ¶Post a Comment